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Repositório FGV de Conferências

OCS@FGV, XV Encontro Brasileiro de Finanças

Tamanho da fonte: 
Forecasting Brazilian inflation with high-dimencional models
Marcelo C. Medeiros, Gabriel Filipe Rodrigues Vasconcelos, Eduardo Henrique de Freitas

Última alteração: 18-05-2015

Resumo


In this paper we use a set high-dimensional and univariated models to forecast the Brazilian inflation. The models are the simple AR, the factor model and LASSO type models. Our results showed that the LASSO has the smallest errors for small horizon forecasts. However, for long horizons the AR is the best model; the factor model also produces some good long horizon forecasts in a few cases. We tested all the models for the two most important Brazilian inflation measures, the IPCA and the IGP-M. The results also showed that there are differences on the selected variables for both measures. Finally, the most important variables selected by the LASSO models are, in general, related to government debt and money. Variables such as unemployment and production were rarely selected by LASSO models.

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