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OCS@FGV, X Encontro Brasileiro de Finanças

Tamanho da fonte: 
PRESENT VALUE MODEL BETWEEN PRICES AND DIVIDENDS IN THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM PANEL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO NONSTATIONARY AND POTENTIALLY COINTEGRATED PROCESSES
Edward Bernard Bastiaan Rivera Rivera, Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Diogenes Leiva Martin

Última alteração: 15-07-2010

Resumo


The Present Value Model (PVM) – in which current security prices depend upon the present value of future discounted dividends, where the discount rate is equivalent to the required rate of return – is one of the long-standing principles of Finance Theory. This relationship has gathered attention from empirical literature due to the rapid price increase in stock markets throughout the decade of 1990 and its subsequent decline. The objective of this work is to analyze the validity of the PVM between prices and dividends at the firm level from panel techniques applied to nonstationary and potentially cointegrated processes for the Brazilian stock market. Results indicate that, in the Present Value Model with Constant Expected Returns, the hypothesis that real prices and real dividends have a unit root cannot be rejected. Respective panel cointegration tests indicate that real prices and real dividends are cointegrated, and hence attributing validity to the PVM under the hypothesis of constant expected returns. Regarding the Present Value Model with Time-Varying Expected Returns, the hypothesis that real log prices and real log dividends are nonstationary  and that log price-dividend ratio is  cannot be rejected as analyzed in theory for the validation of the underlying model. The respective panel cointegration tests yield evidence that the real log prices and real log dividends series are cointegrated, validating the PVM under the hypothesis of time-varying expected returns. Considering FMOLS and DOLS estimators for panel cointegration models, results indicate that stock prices are overvalued under either constant or time-varying expected returns. 


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