Monitoring the return to normality in six European countries II: the standstill persists

Abstract

In the six European countries at stake -Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain- though no negative outcomes up to the last week considered in this Note took place, none or rather very slow progress has been seen as regards the decline of the structural dynamics of the epidemic. Repeating what has been said in the previous Monitoring: the epidemic will linger on for a few months, and vigilance must be on. We continue to characterise this moment as a standstill; now even as regards the number of new daily deaths in some countries, with figures oscillating around a flat trend. Also as said one week ago, the path to herd immunity seems long and winding: care must not be relaxed, economic activities must of course resume -with due precautions, and the aggressive testing policy conducted by most of the countries must proceed, to give ever better measures of the amount of infected people in each country.