Import protection through antidumping filings and economic activity

Abstract

Despite the well-documented counter-cyclical relationship between import protection and GDP growth, the deep economic recession that has been affecting Brazil since 2014 was followed by a decrease in the number of antidumping investigations. To investigate the relationship between import protection through antidumping (AD) filings and economic activity we updated and adapted the Bown and Crowley 2012 and 2013 papers. We run a negative binomial panel regression model where the independent variable and the main independent variable are on a country-bilateral basis. Our database included samples from both emerging economies and developed countries. The results suggest that the counter cyclical relationship between AD filings and imposing country GDP is valid only for developed countries, while emerging economies show rather a pro-cyclical trend. Results should be regarded with caution since the expected negative relationship between exporting country GDP and AD filings has not been confirmed and annual data may not be appropriate to analyze the relationship under scrutiny.