The purpose of this paper is to explore machine learning techniques to forecast the oil price. In the era of big data, we investigate whether new automated tools can improve over traditional approaches in terms of forecast ...

This paper analyzes the optimal menu of contracts offered by a risk neutral principal to a risk averse agent under moral hazard, adverse selection and limited liability. We show that a limited liability constraint causes ...

In 1980, housing prices in large US cities rose with distance from the city center. By 2010, that relationship had reversed. We propose that the inversion can be traced to more hours worked by the skilled. Scarce non-market ...

This paper considers identification and inference about the sign of the average effect of a binary endogenous regressor (or treatment) on a binary outcome of interest when a binary instrument is available. In this setting, ...

This paper studies the interaction between commodity prices and global economic activity in a setup where a representative cost-minimizing firm chooses optimal inputs as derived demands. Our focus is on important globally ...