Using common features to investigate common growth cycles for BRICS Countries

Abstract

Emerging market economies have historically shown high cyclical volatility when compared to developed economies. Common factor models have been largely used in economics as economic theory suggests that there strong linkages between economic activity across different industries or countries. This paper examines the short and long-term co-movement of large emerging market economies – the BRICS countries – by applying the econometric techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. Despite their dissimilarities, given the rising trade linkages among the BRICS over the last 20 years one should expect their cycles to be synchronized. Our empirical findings fully support this hypothesis. The evidence holds also for the co-movement between the BRICS and developed economies, the US and the Eurozone, which may re- flect the effects of globalization. We believe that our results contribute to give an interesting insight into the short–term dynamics of the largest emerging market economies.