RSS 1.0FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão / Working Paper Series
FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão / Working Paper Series
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Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
2016-05-05Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this ... -
A reconstrução da indústria brasileira: a conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial
2016-02-26Este artigo, de cunho eminentemente analítico, mostra que no âmbito da política macroeconômica, é necessária consistência entre as políticas monetária, fiscal, cambial e salarial para viabilizar taxas de juros reais médias ... -
Modelos de estado desenvolvimentista
2016-02-26O estado desenvolvimentista está situado entre o estado liberal e o estatismo. Todas as revoluções industriais foram realizadas no quadro de estados desenvolvimentistas, que assumiram várias formas ou modelos, conforme o ... -
Cash-cum-in-kind transfers and income tax function
2016-02-25This paper investigates income tax revenues response to tax rate changes taking into consideration that cash-cum-in-kind transfers are used as a redistributive package to the community. First, we show that when cash and ... -
Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance
2016-02-25The Rest will be able to catch up and grow faster than the West only if it goes against a 'received truth', namely that capital-rich countries should transfer their capital to capital-poor countries. This intuitive truth ... -
Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries
2016-01-28This paper distinguishes three types of countries (rich, middle-income, and pre-industrial) and focus on the latter, which, in contrast to the other two, didn’t complete their industrial and capitalist revolutions. Can ... -
Estado, estado-nação e formas de intermediação social
2016-01-20This paper, first, situates the nation-state historically, as a product of the capitalist revolution. Second, it distinguishes the state (the law system and the organization that guarantees it) from the nation-state or ... -
Lighting and violent crimes: evaluating the effect of an electrification policy in rural Brazil on violent crime reduction
2016-01-19This paper estimates the effect of lighting on violent crime reduction. We explore an electrification program (LUZ PARA TODOS or Light for All - LPT) adopted by the federal government to expand electrification to rural ... -
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis
2015-11-27The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. ... -
Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity
2015-10-27Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We ... -
Sobre o custo do tempo para a competitividade da indústria brasileira: diagnóstico e síntese dos impactos econômicos da facilitação do comércio no Brasil
2015-10-26Este artigo analisa a importância dos atrasos portuários para a competitividade da indústria de transformação no Brasil. Com base em estimativas recentes sobre o custo diário dos atrasos comerciais e em bases de dados do ... -
Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates
2015-10-26Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange ... -
On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports
2015-09-10This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the ... -
The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains
2015-09-10This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It ... -
Diferencial de salários da mão de obra terceirizada no Brasil
2015-08-07Esse artigo compara os salários da mão de obra terceirizada no Brasil com os dos trabalhadores contratados diretamente pelas empresas. A comparação simples entre as remunerações médias dos dois grupos indica que os salários ... -
Brazil’s 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory
2015-08-07Brazil is growing around 1% per capita a year from 1981; this means for a country that is supposed to catch up, quasi-stagnation. Four historical new facts explain why growth was so low after the Real Plan: the reduction ... -
Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns
2015-08-07This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop ... -
Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production
2015-07-27This work assesses the forecasts of three nonlinear methods | Markov Switching Autoregressive Model, Logistic Smooth Transition Auto-regressive Model, and Auto-metrics with Dummy Saturation | for the Brazilian monthly ... -
The Brazilian foreign exchange market through the microstructure perspective
2015-07-27The objective of this study is to investigate whether the relationship between order ow and the spot exchange rate stems from the fact that the ow aggregates information on dispersed economic fundamentals in the economy. ... -
Reflecting on new developmentalism and classical developmentalism
2015-07-23This paper, first, distinguishes new developmentalism, a new theoretical system that is being created, from really existing developmentalism – a form of organizing capitalism. Second, it distinguishes new developmentalism ...
