RSS 1.0FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão / Working Paper Series
FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão / Working Paper Series
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The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development
2016This paper brings elements from the economic complexity literature to the discussions of the structuralist tradition on the central role of manufacturing and productive sophistication to economic growth. Using data provided ... -
State-controlled companies and political risk: evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election
2016This paper examines the vulnerability of state-controlled companies to political risk using the 2014 Brazilian election and data on stock options. In her first term as Brazilian president, Ms. Dilma Rousseff took measures ... -
A time series analysis of household income inequality in Brazil 1977-2013
2016This paper analyses the evolution of household income inequality in Brazil from 1977 and 2013 using Brazilian National Household Survey data at aggregated and regional levels. Four income shares quantiles are analyzed: Top ... -
Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis
2016The main goal of this paper is to determine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil. With a sample from 1997 to 2014, we are not able to obtain the relevant impact of fiscal stimuli on output, even when altering both ... -
Another argument against negotiated grants: how the bill for local corruption is distributed
2016The objective of this paper is to indicate another argument against negotiated grants (NGs): the possibility of local leaders seeking NGs in order to transfer the bill for local corruption to the whole country. Our argument ... -
Communication policy with public uncertainty
2016This paper analyses how to design a communication policy in a setting with both incomplete information and uncertainty about the future. In the model developed, both agents and the information authority have only noisy ... -
The fire-armed police effect: evidences from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil
2016We estimate the impact of fire-armed police on violent crimes (homicides and acts of aggression) in a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil. In 2003, Brazilian legislators approved a law that regulates the use of firearms by ... -
Short and long-term effects of a child-labor ban
2016This is the first study that investigates the short and long-term causal effects of a child-labor ban. We explore the law that increased minimum employment age from 14 to 16 in Brazil in 1998 and uncover its impact on time ... -
Models of developmental state
2016This paper searches to understand the developmental state and its historical role in the industrial revolution and after it. First, the developmental state is defined as an alternative to the liberal state. Second, it was ... -
Determinants of the implied equity risk premium in Brazil
2016This paper proposes and tests market determinants of the equity risk premium (ERP) in Brazil. We use implied ERP, based on the Elton (1999) critique. The ultimate goal of this exercise is to demonstrate that the calculation ... -
Why developing countries should not incur foreign debt: the Brazilian experience
2016What we should learn from foreign debt is, essentially, that developing countries should not get indebted in foreign money. Not only because foreign debt leads countries cyclically to balance of payment financial crises ... -
Inflation bias in Latin America
2016This paper accesses the presence of inflation bias in major Latin American Economies over the past decade. Using a small-scale New Keynesian DSGE model and Bayesian Techniques, the time-varying neutral rate of interest is ... -
Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)
2016-06-22Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially ... -
Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America
2016-06-22We use new data on cyclically adjusted primary balances for Latin America and the Caribbean to estimate e ects of scal consolidations on GDP and some of its components. Identi cation is conducted through a doubly-robust ... -
A revolução capitalista
2016-06-22The Capitalist Revolution was the period of the transition from the ancient societies to capitalism; it was a long transition that began in North Italy, in the 14th century, and for the first time got completed in England, ... -
Revisiting the synthetic control estimator
2016-06-16VERSÃO ATUALIZADA DE ABRIL DE 2018 DISPONÍVEL. -
Cherry picking with synthetic controls
2016-06-08The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages ... -
Revisiting modern portfolio theory
2016-05-30This paper revisits Modern Portfolio Theory and derives eleven properties of Efficient Allocations and Portfolios in the presence of leverage. With different degrees of leverage, an Efficient Portfolio is a linear combination ... -
Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model
2016-05-16Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model ... -
Spatial spillovers and political coordination in public health provision
2016-05-06We estimate the impact of the main unconditional federal grant (Fundo de Participaçãodos Municípios - FPM) to Brazilian municipalities as well as its spillover from the neighboring cities on local health outcomes. We ...
