Browsing FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão / Working Paper Series by Author "Marçal, Emerson Fernandes"
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Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates
2015-10-26Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange ... -
The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
2017Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow ... -
Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros
2012-07-05Este artigo analisa as séries de câmbio real brasileira calculada a partir de índices de preços ao consumidor para o Brasil e 21 parceiros comerciais no período de 1957 a 2010. O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho será o de ... -
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
2016-05-05Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this ... -
Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR
2015-03-25Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies ... -
Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach
2019-02Our paper aims to evaluate two novel methods on selecting the best forecasting model or its combination based on a Machine Learning approach. The methods are based on the selection of the ”best” model, or combination of ... -
Descobrindo e avaliando modelos de predição para a inflação brasileira: uma análise a partir de uma gama ampla de indicadores
2017Este trabalho visa avaliar o poder preditivo que séries macroeconômicas tem sobre o índice de preços ao consumidor amplo do brasileiro (IPCA) utilizando técnicas de séries de tempo. As previsões são realizadas para um ... -
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions
2019-05Recent works for mature markets on covered interest parity suggest that deviations are mean reverting but persistent particularly after 2008 crisis (Du et al., 2018). Our study aims to contribute to the literature by ... -
Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States
2015-03-25Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in ... -
A estrutura a termo da taxa de juros brasileira e a oferta de títulos públicos
2013-12-09Estudos sobre os determinantes da estrutura a termo de taxa de juros brasileira são recentes. Um melhor entendimento sobre os determinantes da mesma é importante, entre outras razões, para política econômica. Existem duas ... -
Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break
2012-09-17This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are ... -
Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals
2009-01-26This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family ... -
Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment
2013-12-09Este trabalho tem por objetivo comparar metodologias distintas para cálculo de desalinhamento cambial além de testar a hipótese se as taxas de câmbio dos diversos países sofrem influencia apenas dos seus próprios fundamentos ... -
Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon
2013-12-09This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve ... -
Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis
2016The main goal of this paper is to determine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil. With a sample from 1997 to 2014, we are not able to obtain the relevant impact of fiscal stimuli on output, even when altering both ... -
Modelando a mudança estrutural do consumo e da renda agregados no Brasil: fatos estilizados a partir de um modelo de cointegração com parâmetros variando no tempo
2011-06-21O trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre consumo e renda agregados das famílias no Brasil para os últimos 60 anos. Para realizar esta análise, foi utilizado a metodologia econométrica construída por Bierens e ... -
Modeling how macroeconomic shocks a ect regional employment: analyzing the Brazilian formal labor market using the global VAR approach
2018-02Assessing linkages across different regions and how macroeconomic shocks spread out across regions is not an easy task. In this study we address this problem using a global vector autoregressive methodology that deals with ... -
Taxa de câmbio, rentabilidade e quantum exportado: existe alguma relação afinal? Evidências para o Brasil
2010-05-26Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar em que medida a taxa de câmbio real é um condicionante importante para a evolução do quantum exportado brasileiro. Para tanto, é testada a existência de alguma relação entre variações ... -
Taxa de Desemprego no Brasil em quatro décadas: retropolação da PNAD contínua de 1976 a 2016
2020-02Este trabalho tem por objetivo retropolar a série de desemprego de forma a compatibilizar a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua na frequência trimestral com as demais séries de desemprego brasileiras. O ... -
A time series analysis of household income inequality in Brazil 1977-2013
2016This paper analyses the evolution of household income inequality in Brazil from 1977 and 2013 using Brazilian National Household Survey data at aggregated and regional levels. Four income shares quantiles are analyzed: Top ...
