Listagem FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo por autor "Marçal, Emerson Fernandes"
Itens para a visualização no momento 1-20 of 28
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Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates
2015-10-26Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange ... -
The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
2017Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow ... -
Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros
2012-07-05Este artigo analisa as séries de câmbio real brasileira calculada a partir de índices de preços ao consumidor para o Brasil e 21 parceiros comerciais no período de 1957 a 2010. O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho será o de ... -
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
2016-05-05Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this ... -
Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR
2015-03-25Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies ... -
Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach
2019-02Our paper aims to evaluate two novel methods on selecting the best forecasting model or its combination based on a Machine Learning approach. The methods are based on the selection of the ”best” model, or combination of ... -
Descobrindo e avaliando modelos de predição para a inflação brasileira: uma análise a partir de uma gama ampla de indicadores
2017Este trabalho visa avaliar o poder preditivo que séries macroeconômicas tem sobre o índice de preços ao consumidor amplo do brasileiro (IPCA) utilizando técnicas de séries de tempo. As previsões são realizadas para um ... -
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions
2019-05Recent works for mature markets on covered interest parity suggest that deviations are mean reverting but persistent particularly after 2008 crisis (Du et al., 2018). Our study aims to contribute to the literature by ... -
The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over
2012The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are ... -
Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States
2015-03-25Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in ... -
A estrutura a termo da taxa de juros brasileira e a oferta de títulos públicos
2013-12-09Estudos sobre os determinantes da estrutura a termo de taxa de juros brasileira são recentes. Um melhor entendimento sobre os determinantes da mesma é importante, entre outras razões, para política econômica. Existem duas ... -
EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs
2013-02The issue of 'trade and exchange rate misalignments' is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to ... -
Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break
2012-09-17This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are ... -
Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals
2009-01-26This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family ... -
Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy: impacts on tariffs
2011-11The debate on 'exchange wars and trade wars' is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the ... -
Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment
2013-12-09Este trabalho tem por objetivo comparar metodologias distintas para cálculo de desalinhamento cambial além de testar a hipótese se as taxas de câmbio dos diversos países sofrem influencia apenas dos seus próprios fundamentos ... -
Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon
2013-12-09This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve ... -
Impactos do câmbio nos instrumentos de comércio internacional: o caso das tarifas
2011-08Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar os impactos dos desalinhamentos cambiais nos instrumentos de comércio internacional, como estabelecidos pela OMC – Organização Mundial do Comércio. É composto por três partes: a primeira ... -
Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis
2016The main goal of this paper is to determine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil. With a sample from 1997 to 2014, we are not able to obtain the relevant impact of fiscal stimuli on output, even when altering both ...
