A quase-estagnação brasileira e sua explicação novo-desenvolvimentista

Abstract

The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1980, with exception of the short 2006-2010 boom, caused by the high prices of the commodities. Up to 1994, the causes were the major financial crisis of the 1980s and the ensuing high inertial inflation. Since these two causes were overcome, the Brazilian economy should have resumed growth, but didn’t. According to new developmental macroeconomics, the new fact that explains this low growth is the 1990-91 trade liberalization, which had as non-predicted consequence the suspension of the neutralization of the Dutch disease. This fact made the Brazilian manufacturing industry to have since then a competitive disadvantage of 20 to 25%, which is causing premature deindustrialization and quasi-stagnation. There is a solution for this stalemate today, but liberal as well as developmental Brazilian economists are not being able to consider the new macroeconomic models that justify it

Artigo destinado ao livro, Industria e Desenvolvimento Produtivo no Brasil. Foi originalmente apresentado em seminário com esse título realizado na Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getúlio Vargas em maio de 2014. Versão de setembro de 2014.