https://hdl.handle.net/10438/13963 2021-11-21T10:32:17Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/29242 Trade, structural transformation and productivity growth in China Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Issler, João Victor This paper studies the recent experience of the Chinese economy from the perspective of a model with structural transformation and trade lib- eralization. The final objective is to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of Chinese experience, namely: the high investment rate, the strong productivity growth in each sector, the reallocation of labor across sectors and public sector expenditures. We construct a standard dynamic general equilibrium model of structural transformation for the Chinese economy, but add government and an external sector. 2019-07-19T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/20711 Human Capital and the Urban and Structural Transformation Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Naranjo, Alexander Monge; Pereira, Luciene Torres de Mello The emergence of slums is a common feature in a country’s path towards urbanization, structural transformation and development. Based on salient micro and macro evidence of Brazilian labor, housing and education markets, we construct a simple model to examine the conditions for slums to emerge. We then use the model to examine whether slums are barriers or stepping stones for lower skilled households and for the development of the country as a whole. We calibrate our model to explore the dynamic interaction between skill formation, income inequality and structural transformation with the rise (and potential fall) of slums in Brazil. We then conduct policy counterfactuals. For instance, we find that cracking down on slums could slow down the acquisition of human capital, the growth of cities (outside slums) and non-agricultural employment. The impact of reducing housing barriers to entry into cities and of different forms of school integration between the city and the slums is also explored. 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/19024 Of cities and slums Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Pereira, Luciene Torres de Mello The emergence of slums is a common feature in a countryís path towards urbanization, structural transformation and development. Based on salient micro and macro evidence of Brazilian labor, housing and education markets, we construct a simple model to examine the conditions for slums to emerge. We then use the model to examine whether slums are barriers or stepping stones for lower skilled households and for the development of the country as a whole. We calibrate our model to explore the dynamic interaction between skill formation, income inequality and structural transformation with the rise (and potential fall) of slums in Brazil. We then conduct policy counterfactuals. For instance, we Önd that cracking down on slums could slow down the acquisition of human capital, the growth of cities (outside slums) and non-agricultural employment. The impact of reducing housing barriers to entry into cities and of di§erent forms of school integration between the city and the slums is also explored. 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14088 Transformação estrutural, serviços e política industrial Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti 2014-10-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14087 Os Brics: oportunidades e desafios Branco, Roberto da Cunha Castello 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14084 Global Ramifications of the Renminbi’s Ascendance Prasad, Eswar S. 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14079 The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities Branco, Roberto da Cunha Castello The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital. 2015-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14072 Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalácio This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere. 2015-07-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14071 Teste de sustentabilidade da dívida, ajuste fiscal no Brasil e consequências para o produto Bicalho, Aurélio; Issler, João Victor 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/14070 As fontes do atraso e das flutuações cíclicas brasileiras Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Gomes, Victor; Ourives, Lígia Helena da Cruz O objetivo deste artigo é identificar as fontes de crescimento de longo prazo e dos movimentos cíclicos do produto na economia brasileira. Buscamos entender as fontes de atraso da economia brasileira e os determinantes dos movimentos cíclicos do produto que tornam as recessões custosas. Para estudar fatores de longo praza utilizamos metodologia de descomposição de crescimento e para estudar movimentos cíclicos trabalhamos com métodos de contabilidade de cíclos e 'wedges'. Mostramos que as distorções às decisões dos agentes - e.g., fricções no mercado de trabalho - possuem um papel importante nas flutuações econômicas e até mesmo no longo prazo. 2015-07-10T00:00:00Z