A substituição de trabalhadores como instrumento para redução de gastos com salários: evidências para a indústria paulista

Abstract

Labor churning is an important component of labor turnover in Brazil, which includes job reallocation between firms. The labor churning evolution in the nineties, at least for the industry sector in Sao Paulo, folows a very similar path for di erent groups of firms (divided by size or by subsectors), suggesting that changes in the macroeconomic environment a ect labor churning in a very similar way for different firms. This paper proposes a model to explain the path of formal labor churning in Brazil. The model admits that employers, when facing exogenous shocks that rise real wage, may substitute employees to reduce wage costs, particularly in low inflation periods, when real wages are more rigid. An econometric analysis is conducted using disaggregated data by firms for the industry sector in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo. The results confirm the models main hipotesis. The results also suggest that, after the monetary estabilization, controlling for inflation and with valid instruments, labor churning is relatively higher.