A série de working papers da EPGE, conhecida como Ensaios Econômicos, é composta de artigos em fase de revisão para publicação. Os autores destes artigos buscam críticas, comentários e exposição visando o aperfeiçoamento do trabalho.

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    • O SACRE no regime de juros compostos 

      Faro, Clovis de; Lachtermacher, Gerson
      Desde sua criação, em 1964, o Sistema Financeiro de Habitação (SFH), inicialmente sob a gestão do Banco Nacional de Habitação (BNH) e, posteriormente, em 1986, com o gerenciamento da Caixa Econômica Federal (CEF), tem sido ...
    • Redistribution with labor market frictions 

      Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Maestri, Lucas Jóver; Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
      How should search frictions in the labor market affect distributive policies? Can we assess current real-world policies? After building a framework for answering these questions we show that any constrained efficient ...
    • Intrahousehold inequality and the joint taxation of household earnings 

      Alves, Cassiano Breno Machado; Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Moreira, Humberto Ataíde
      We study the optimal design of nonlinear labor income tax for multiperson households. Each household consists of two workers with different productivity levels and unequal access to the family’s economic resources. We show ...
    • Managers’productivity and recruitment in the public sector: the case of school principals 

      Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
      We study whether differences in management can explain variation in productivity and how more effective managers can be recruited in absence of high-powered incentives. To investigate this, we first extend the canonical ...
    • Housing supply in the presence of informality 

      Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco; Iachan, Felipe Saraiva; Guedes, Ricardo Brito
      We study housing supply in markets where informal housing is common. Using a combination of census and satellite data, we estimate housing supply for more than 90 metropolitan areas in Brazil. We find that widespread ...
    • Optimal notional defined contributions 

      Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
      Notional Defined Contributions (NDC) systems mimic the incentive structure of fully funded social security while preserving the Pay-as-you-go nature of most current systems. We study size-preserving social reforms which ...
    • Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Pitfalls and Alternatives 

      Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Peruffo, Marcel Cortes; Cordeiro Valério, André
      This article studies the short -and long-term effects of Universal Basic Income programs - a uniform transfer to every individual in society - in the context of a developing economy and compares this policy with other ...
    • Social distancing, temperature, BCG and the evolution of COVID-19: a panel-model analysis 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha; Madureira, Alexandre L.
      Background: This work presents results concerning the impact of some variables mentioned in the literature on the daily variation rate of cases (per million inhabitants) of COVID-19, based on a large sample of countries ...
    • Progressive Consumption Taxes 

      Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
      In a static setting, whether consumption or labor income is progressively taxed is irrelevant for household choices and welfare. In a dynamic setting, however, these two forms of progressivity have markedly di erent ...
    • COVID-19: análise com um modelo estatístico para dados em painel 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha; Madureira, Alexandre L.
      Esse trabalho tem por objetivo oferecer resultados relativos ao impacto de algumas variáveis mencionadas na literatura, sobre a taxa de variação diária de casos (por milhão de habitantes) registrados da COVID-19. Utilizam-se ...
    • Who should bear the risk of economic growth? 

      Abreu, Rafael Costa Berriel; Costa, Carlos Eugênio da
      How is aggregate risks optimally shared between workers and retirees? We break this question in two parts. First, how ought risk to be shared between two groups of agents: one which must be provided incentives to make ...
    • The Constant amortization scheme with multiple contracts 

      Faro, Clovis de
      Since its inception by the Brazilian System of Home Financing (Sistema Financeiro de Habitação – SFH) in 1971, the constant amortization scheme has become a very popular method of debt financing, even competing, particularly ...
    • Stop suffering! economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Marcantonio Junior, Angelo; Castro, Rudi Rocha de
      This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. We find that regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal ...
    • Juros simples (?) e suas complicações 

      Faro, Clovis de
      Como sumariado na segunda seção deste trabalho, que contempla um breve sumário de práticas arraigadas em diversas culturas, a cobrança de juros tem, de há muito, sido sempre presente. Todavia, os procedimentos para a ...
    • Microfounded forecasting 

      Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza; Issler, João Victor
      This paper proposes a Önancial approach to economic forecasting which can be applied to data bases of surveys of forecasts. We model the forecasting decision of an individual from Örst principles (i.e., microfounded) and ...
    • Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach 

      Issler, João Victor; Soares, Ana Flávia
      Credibility is elusive and no generally agreed upon measure of it exists. Despite that, Blinder (2000) generated a consensus in the literature by arguing that ”A central bank is credible if people believe it will do what ...
    • Incentive-driven Inattention 

      Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza; Giacomini, Raffaela; Issler, João Victor; Skreta, Vasiliki
      “Rational inattention” is becoming increasingly prominent in economic modelling, but there is little empirical evidence for its central premise–that the choice of attention results from a cost-benefit optimization. ...
    • Mixed causal-noncausal autoregressions with exogenous regressors 

      Hecq, Alain; Issler, João Victor; Telg, Sean
      The mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) model has been proposed to estimate time series processes involving explosive roots in the autoregressive part, as it allows for stationary forward and backward solutions. ...
    • Winners and losers from China’s ascension in international trade: a structural approach 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Pessoa, João Paulo
      This paper employs a unified theoretical framework to estimate the effect ofchanges within China on the Brazilian and World’s economy. Based on the Ricar-dian model of trade of Costinotet al.(2012), we perform counterfactuals ...