Consumers’ inflation expectations in Brazil

Abstract

This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer’s inflation expectations. We combine the FGV’s Consumer Survey with the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indices on inflation (IPCA and regulated prices), the professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report and the media data we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer’s forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and cities as major elements when analyzing the micro-data. Aggregated data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers’ expectations and the professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations’ formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.