https://hdl.handle.net/10438/2 Fri, 05 Nov 2021 20:35:40 GMT 2021-11-05T20:35:40Z https://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br:443/dspace/bitstream/id/c3d8b306-d96b-4928-8ead-072b7313f240/ https://hdl.handle.net/10438/2 https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31235 O canto das sereias: para funcionar o teto precisaria ter sido acompanhado de reformas mais profundas Machado, Cecilia Tue, 26 Oct 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31235 2021-10-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31211 Redistribution with labor market frictions Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Maestri, Lucas Jóver; Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos How should search frictions in the labor market affect distributive policies? Can we assess current real-world policies? After building a framework for answering these questions we show that any constrained efficient allocation must satisfy the following set of testable restrictions: i) earnings and employment probability must be co-monotone, ii) wedges on taxable income and employment probability must have the same sign; and; iii) wedges at the bottom of the distribution of income should be positive. Labor income tax schedules and unemployment benefits are shown not to suffice for implementing constrained efficient allocations. Firms can nonetheless be provided incentives to generate the efficient supply of vacancies using informationally feasible tax instruments. We devise a method for the quantitative assessment of inefficiency, calibrate our model to the U.S. economy, and find that it is possible to increase government revenues by 3.48% while preserving everyone’s utility https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31211 https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31142 Nada indica que Evergrande seja a nova Lehman Brothers Machado, Cecilia Tue, 28 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31142 2021-09-28T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31115 Liberalismo e condescendência Braido, Luís H. B. Wed, 22 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31115 2021-09-22T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31104 It's the phone, stupid: mobiles and murder Edlund, Lena; Machado, Cecilia US homicide rates fell sharply in the early 1990s, a decade that also saw the mainstreaming of cell phones – a concurrence that may be more than a coincidence, we propose. Cell phones may have undercut turf-based street dealing, thus undermining drug-dealing profits of street gangs, entities known to engage in violent crime. Studying county-level data for the years 1970-2009 we find that the expansion of cellular phone service (as proxied by antenna-structure density) lowered homicide rates in the 1990s. Furthermore, effects were concentrated in urban counties; among Black or Hispanic males; and more gang/drug-associated homicides. Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31104 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31103 Gentrification and rising returns to skill Edlund, Lena; Cecilia, Machado; Sviatschi, Maria In 1980, housing prices in large US cities rose with distance from the city center. By 2010, that relationship had reversed. We propose that the inversion can be traced to more hours worked by the skilled. Scarce non-market time downgrades the importance of residential space and upgrades that of proximity to work, factors favoring the central-city location. Geo-coded census micro data covering the 27 largest US cities and the period 1980-2010 support our hypothesis: full-time skilled workers are more likely to locate in the city center and their growth can account for the observed price changes. Wed, 01 Nov 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31103 2017-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31102 Reforma tributária, oportunidade perdida: governo não simplificou a estrutura tributária e nem reduziu a competição entre os Estados Cardoso, Renato Fragelli; Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Thu, 16 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31102 2021-09-16T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31095 Instrumental variables and the sign of the average treatment effect Machado, Cecilia; Shaikh, Azeem M.; Vytlacil, Edward J. This paper considers identification and inference about the sign of the average effect of a binary endogenous regressor (or treatment) on a binary outcome of interest when a binary instrument is available. In this setting, the average effect of the endogenous regressor on the outcome is sometimes referred to as the average treatment effect (ATE). We consider four different sets of assumptions: instrument exogeneity, instrument exogeneity and monotonicity on the outcome equation, instrument exogeneity and onotonicity on the equation for the endogenous regressor, or instrument exogeneity and monotonicity on both the outcome equation and the equation for the endogenous regressor. For each of these sets of conditions, we characterize when (i) the distribution of the observed data is inconsistent with the assumptions and (ii) the distribution of the observed data is consistent with the assumptions and the sign of ATE is identified. A distinguishing feature of our results is that they are stated in terms of a reduced form parameter from the population regression of the outcome on the instrument. In particular, we find that the reduced form parameter being far enough, but not too far, from zero, implies that the distribution of the observed data is consistent with our assumptions and the sign of ATE is identified, while the reduced form parameter being too far from zero implies that the distribution of the observed data is inconsistent with our assumptions. For each set of restrictions, we also develop methods for simultaneous inference about the consistency of the distribution of the observed data with our restrictions and the sign of the ATE when the distribution of the observed data is consistent with our restrictions. We show that our inference procedures are valid uniformly over a large class of possible distributions for the observed data that include distributions where the instrument is arbitrarily “weak.” A novel feature of the methodology is that the null hypotheses involve unions of moment inequalities. Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31095 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31092 O enigma do emprego: problema do emprego e da produtividade do trabalho não nos deixará tão cedo Machado, Cecilia Tue, 14 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31092 2021-09-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30994 Política industrial: razões para o ceticismo Cardoso, Renato Fragelli; Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Thu, 19 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30994 2021-08-19T00:00:00Z