Browsing by Author "Marçal, Emerson Fernandes"
Now showing items 1-20 of 52
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Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates
2015-10-26Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange ... -
The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
2017Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow ... -
Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros
2012-07-05Este artigo analisa as séries de câmbio real brasileira calculada a partir de índices de preços ao consumidor para o Brasil e 21 parceiros comerciais no período de 1957 a 2010. O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho será o de ... -
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
2016-05-05Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this ... -
Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR
2015-03-25Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies ... -
Crise e desaceleração da economia brasileira: efeitos sobre os países do Mercosul
2015-10O Brasil é uma das maiores economias do continente sul-americano e sua integração com os países da região, especialmente com os participantes do acordo do Mercosul, tem se intensi ficado ao longo dos anos. Nesse contexto, ... -
Crise e desaceleração nas economias desenvolvidas: quais os possíveis efeitos para o Brasil?
2015-12A possibilidade de uma nova crise externa ou uma forte desaceleração das grandes economias do mundo é um temor constante para os países mais vulneráveis. Com base na estimação de um modelo autoregressivo global (GAR), esse ... -
Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach
2019-02Our paper aims to evaluate two novel methods on selecting the best forecasting model or its combination based on a Machine Learning approach. The methods are based on the selection of the ”best” model, or combination of ...
