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The observed risk rate vs the risk rate previously attributed to the contracts of a development bank

Denise Benetti Ramirez, Francis Carlo Petterini


The article deals with two subjects rarely intersecting in the literature: risk of default and development banks. As risk management is critical to maximizing profit in commercial banks, there are many analyzes of this type. But perhaps because the development banks have indirect role in the financial system, there are few studies with this specificity. But a careless risk management in such banks may compromise the strategic financing of entire regions and sectors. In this sense, the research obtained unprecedented access to microdata of contracts of a Brazilian development bank. After estimating probabilities of default (PD) among borrower profiles, the study contrasts the risk ratings attributed a priori. It is observed indications of distortions in the ratings of some entrepreneurial profiles, and a consequent dilemma: to correct this the institution would take more exiguous contracts, contrary to the purpose of the bank.


banking risk; development banks; probability of default; survival analysis

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