Simulação econométrica de estoques reguladores mundiais para cacau

Abstract

This study evaluates alternative buffer stock policies for cocoa as an instrument to stabilize world market prices over the 1977-96 period. An econometric madel that explains production, stocks, demand and equilibrium prices was used in the simulation of the alternative policy scenarios. The policy simulations performed with the model determine a buffer stock intervention. (withdraw or sale) under two alternative criteria: when actual prices are different from target prices, and when they fall outside an established band of the target prices (within which they are allowed to vary). Two types of target prices were defined: a fixed one and a three-year moving average of actual prices. The results of the study show that the target price 1s an important factor in determining the amount of cocoa stocks accumulated during the 20-year period. The policy which combines a moving average target price with a twenty percent price range results in the minimum accumulation of cocoa stocks. The study also shows that the rate of growth of income in the importing countries has a significant impact on the ammount of cocoa stocks which are accumulated.