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A Markov Switching Model for the Brazilian Demand for Imports: Analyzing the Import Substitution Process in Brazil

Igor Alexandre C. de Morais, Marcelo Savino Portugal

Abstract


The aim of the present paper is to apply a Markov Switching model to check the charac- teristics of the Brazilian demand for imports equation based on annual data from 1947 to 2002 and on quarterly data from 1978:I to 2002:II. The results show that this model satisfactorily describes the structural and conjunctural characteristics of Brazilian for- eign trade in the last decades. The long-term analysis, based on annual data, allowed for the identification of cyclic periods of trade closure and openness that coincide with the historical events of Brazilian economy. The conjunctural analysis, based on quarterly data, indicates different elasticities for a regime with rise and fall in imports.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12660/bre.v25n22005.2504

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