Forecasting the Brazilian Term Structure Using Macroeconomic Factors

Abstract

This paper studies the forecasting of the Brazilian interest rate term structure using common factors from a wide database of 171 macroeconomic series, from the period of January 2000 to May 2012. Firstly the model proposed by Moench (2008) was implemented, in which the dynamic of the short term interest rate is modeled using a FAVAR and the term structure is derived using the restrictions implied by no-arbitrage. Similarly to the original study, this model resulted in better predictive performance when compared to the usual benchmarks, but presented deterioration of the results with increased maturity. To avoid this problem, we proposed that the dynamic of each rate be modeled in conjunction with the macroeconomic factors, thus eliminating the no-arbitrage restrictions. This attempt produced superior forecasting results. Finally, the macro factors were inserted in the model proposed by Diebold and Li (2006).