The EU-Mercosul free trade agreement: Quantifying mutual gains

Abstract

We identify trade in goods opportunities in a EU-Mercosul free trade area. Gains for Mercosul are rather concentrated, being mostly associated to a few agricultural commodities nowadays facing high protection barriers. EU gains are evenly spread, comprising a variety of market penetration possibilities. Trade deviation by the EU products is never higher than trade creation, confirming their international competitiveness and signalling that a great distortion of Mercosul’s imports won’t take place. Balanced gains exist for both sides; for Mercosul, the agreement can act as a first serious trial for future liberalisations with other developed partners, and as a warning on needed competitiveness improvements.