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Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
(Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia, 2009-02-05)
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We ...
The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period
(Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2006-09-01)
With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about ...