A série de working papers da EPGE, conhecida como Ensaios Econômicos, é composta de artigos em fase de revisão para publicação. Os autores destes artigos buscam críticas, comentários e exposição visando o aperfeiçoamento do trabalho.

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    • Stop suffering! Economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Marcantonio Junior, Angelo; Castro, Rudi Rocha de
      This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on religious conversion. We exploit the Brazilian trade liberalization to study the effects of local economic shocks on affiliation to Pentecostal Evangelicalism across ...
    • Social security reform, retirement and occupational behavior 

      Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Parente, Rafael Machado
      We study, in a life-cycle economy with three sectors - formal, informal and public – and endogenous retirement, the macroeconomic and occupational impacts of social security reforms in an economy with multiple pension ...
    • Early childhood education and economic growth 

      Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo; Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-10-18)
      We study the effects of early childhood skill formation on productivity and schooling. We add early childhood human capital to a standard continuous time life cycle economy and assume complementarity between educational ...
    • Is the new keynesian is curve forward looking? 

      Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-04)
      This paper analyzes the solutions of the canonical and hybrid New Keynesian IS curve difference equation. It shows that the usual forward solution is ruled out because it is at odds with the underlying economic theory. ...
    • An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha (engEscola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-08)
      Recent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily ...
    • Welfare cost of Inflation in Brazil: an approach with time-varying cointegration and Kalman filter 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-08-01)
      This paper compares the time-varying cointegration and the Kalman filter techniques to estimate the Brazilian money demand between 1996 and 2015. The estimation using Kalman filtering performs better and is subsequently ...
    • Fiscal vulnerability in Brazil: a simulated method of moments approach 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-08-01)
      This article estimates a structural macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and public debt risk premium. The aim is to assess the effect of different ...
    • A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-05-01)
      This paper evaluates the sustainability of public debt in Brazil using monthly data from January 2003 to June 2016, based on the estimation of fiscal reaction functions with time-varying coefficients. Three estimation ...
    • Correção monetária e eternização dos débitos: os casos do BNH, do BNDE e da CEF 

      Faro, Clovis de; Garcia, Fabio Lemos (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2018-03)
      A Lei nº 4.380, de 21 de agosto de 1964, instituiu a correção monetária e, simultaneamente, o Banco Nacional de Habitação (BNH). Seu objetivo foi o de buscar preservar os valores reais dos contratos, em especial os relativos ...
    • A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-12-01)
      This paper evaluates the sustainability of public debt in Brazil using monthly data from the period between January 2003 and June 2016, based on estimation of fiscal reaction functions with time-varying coefficients. Three ...
    • Growth and shared prosperity in Brazil 

      Kakwani, Nanak; Neri, Marcelo Côrtes; Vaz, Fábio Monteiro (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-12)
      This paper proposes extensions of the idea of shared prosperity and inclusive development. It explores dynamic growth linkages between mean income, inequality and social welfare, on the one hand, and different labor ...
    • Returns and intergenerational mobility of education during period of falling earnings inequality in Brazil 

      Neri, Marcelo Côrtes; Bonomo, Tiago (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-12-21)
      Education related changes are often argued as the main reasons for changes in earnings distribuctions. However, omitted variable and measurement error biases possibly affect econometric estimates of these effects. Brazil ...
    • Infrastructure investment and social progress in Brazil 

      Neri, Marcelo Côrtes (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-12)
      This paper draws a broad empirical diagnosis on the evolution of infrastructure coverage in Brazil and potencial social impacts. it focuses on the sectors of sewerage, water, electricity, urban transportation and communication ...
    • On measuring social tensions: with applications to Brazil 

      Neri, Marcelo Côrtes; Kakwani, Nanak (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-12)
      There are a number of different types of social tensions that can generate social unrest. Starting from standard inequality and poverty concerns to the ones related to temporal fluctuations in living standards including ...
    • Bailey's measure of the welfare costs of inflation as a general-equilibrium measure 

      Cysne, Rubens Penha (2017)
      Lucas (2000) has shown that Bailey’s formula for the welfare costs of inflation can be regarded as an approximation to the general-equilibrium measures that emerge from the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models. In this ...
    • Empirical analysis of scoring auctions for oil and gas leases 

      Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-10)
      I study a scoring auctions implemented in Brazil to sell oil exploration rights. Differently from most sales of this kind, bidders had to submit a multi-dimensional bid that included a bonus and an exploratory program. A ...
    • Likelihood inference and the role of initial conditions for the dynamic panel data model 

      Barbosa, José Diogo Valadares Moreira; Moreira, Marcelo J. (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-10)
      Lancaster (2002) proposes an estimator for the dynamic panel data model with homoskedastic errors and zero initial conditions. In this paper, we show this estimator is invariant to orthogonal transformations, but is ine ...
    • Impossible inference in econometrics: theory and applications to regression discontinuity, bunching, and exogeneity tests 

      Bertanha, Marinho Angelo; Moreira, Marcelo J. (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-10)
      This paper presents necessary and su cient conditions for tests to have trivial power. By inverting these impractical tests, we demonstrate that the bounded con dence regions have error probability equal to one. This theo- ...
    • Capital budgeting and risk taking under credit constraints 

      Iachan, Felipe Saraiva (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017-10)
      Credit constraints generate a hedging motive that extends beyond purely financial decisions by also distorting the selection and operation of real investment projects. We study these distortions through a dynamic model in ...
    • Múltiplos contratos: o caso do sistema americano 

      Faro, Clovis de (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2017)
      A adoção do sistema de múltiplos contratos (SMC), tal como originalmente formulado por De-Losso, Giovannetti e Rangel (2013), que focaram atenção em contratos de financiamento com prestações constantes (Tabela Price – TP), ...