A série de working papers da EPGE, conhecida como Ensaios Econômicos, é composta de artigos em fase de revisão para publicação. Os autores destes artigos buscam críticas, comentários e exposição visando o aperfeiçoamento do trabalho.

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Now showing items 1-20 of 815

    • COVID-19: análise com um modelo estatístico para dados em painel 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha; Madureira, Alexandre L.
      Esse trabalho tem por objetivo oferecer resultados relativos ao impacto de algumas variáveis mencionadas na literatura, sobre a taxa de variação diária de casos (por milhão de habitantes) registrados da COVID-19. Utilizam-se ...
    • Who should bear the risk of economic growth? 

      Abreu, Rafael Costa Berriel; Costa, Carlos Eugênio da
      How is aggregate risks optimally shared between workers and retirees? We break this question in two parts. First, how ought risk to be shared between two groups of agents: one which must be provided incentives to make ...
    • The Constant amortization scheme with multiple contracts 

      Faro, Clovis de
      Since its inception by the Brazilian System of Home Financing (Sistema Financeiro de Habitação – SFH) in 1971, the constant amortization scheme has become a very popular method of debt financing, even competing, particularly ...
    • Stop suffering! economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Marcantonio Junior, Angelo; Castro, Rudi Rocha de
      This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. We find that regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal ...
    • Juros simples (?) e suas complicações 

      Faro, Clovis de
      Como sumariado na segunda seção deste trabalho, que contempla um breve sumário de práticas arraigadas em diversas culturas, a cobrança de juros tem, de há muito, sido sempre presente. Todavia, os procedimentos para a ...
    • Microfounded forecasting 

      Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza; Issler, João Victor
      This paper proposes a Önancial approach to economic forecasting which can be applied to data bases of surveys of forecasts. We model the forecasting decision of an individual from Örst principles (i.e., microfounded) and ...
    • Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach 

      Issler, João Victor; Soares, Ana Flávia
      Credibility is elusive and no generally agreed upon measure of it exists. Despite that, Blinder (2000) generated a consensus in the literature by arguing that ”A central bank is credible if people believe it will do what ...
    • Incentive-driven Inattention 

      Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza; Giacomini, Raffaela; Issler, João Victor; Skreta, Vasiliki
      “Rational inattention” is becoming increasingly prominent in economic modelling, but there is little empirical evidence for its central premise–that the choice of attention results from a cost-benefit optimization. ...
    • Mixed causal-noncausal autoregressions with exogenous regressors 

      Hecq, Alain; Issler, João Victor; Telg, Sean
      The mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) model has been proposed to estimate time series processes involving explosive roots in the autoregressive part, as it allows for stationary forward and backward solutions. ...
    • Winners and losers from China’s ascension in international trade: a structural approach 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Pessoa, João Paulo
      This paper employs a unified theoretical framework to estimate the effect ofchanges within China on the Brazilian and World’s economy. Based on the Ricar-dian model of trade of Costinotet al.(2012), we perform counterfactuals ...
    • Mechanism design and the collective approach to household behavior 

      Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Lima, Lucas Alves Estevam de
      Do the Revelation and Taxation Principles hold for multi-person householDo the Revelation and Taxation Principles hold for multi-person households? We provide a positive answer to the former and a negative to the latter ...
    • How green is sugarcane ethanol? 

      Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco
      Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions in transportation. However, the agricultural expansion needed to produce biofuels may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle ...
    • Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: analysis of a possible structural break in the recent period 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      Campos and Cysne (2019a) use the multicointegration method to analyze the behavior of Brazilian public debt between 1997 and 2018. The authors observe, in this previous work, the necessity of evaluating the existence of a ...
    • Sustainability of the Brazilian public pebt an analysis using multicointegration 

      Cysne, Rubens Penha; Campos, Eduardo Lima
      According to Bohn (1995, 2008), the conventional sustainability tests, based on analyzing cointegration between government revenues and expenditures, are inconclusive for determining the sustainability of fiscal policy. ...
    • Stop suffering! Economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Marcantonio Junior, Angelo; Castro, Rudi Rocha de
      This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on religious conversion. We exploit the Brazilian trade liberalization to study the effects of local economic shocks on affiliation to Pentecostal Evangelicalism across ...
    • Social security reform, retirement and occupational behavior 

      Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Parente, Rafael Machado
      We study, in a life-cycle economy with three sectors - formal, informal and public – and endogenous retirement, the macroeconomic and occupational impacts of social security reforms in an economy with multiple pension ...
    • Early childhood education and economic growth 

      Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo; Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
      We study the effects of early childhood skill formation on productivity and schooling. We add early childhood human capital to a standard continuous time life cycle economy and assume complementarity between educational ...
    • Is the new keynesian is curve forward looking? 

      Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda
      This paper analyzes the solutions of the canonical and hybrid New Keynesian IS curve difference equation. It shows that the usual forward solution is ruled out because it is at odds with the underlying economic theory. ...
    • An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      Recent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily ...
    • Welfare cost of Inflation in Brazil: an approach with time-varying cointegration and Kalman filter 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      This paper compares the time-varying cointegration and the Kalman filter techniques to estimate the Brazilian money demand between 1996 and 2015. The estimation using Kalman filtering performs better and is subsequently ...