A série de working papers da EPGE, conhecida como Ensaios Econômicos, é composta de artigos em fase de revisão para publicação. Os autores destes artigos buscam críticas, comentários e exposição visando o aperfeiçoamento do trabalho.

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Now showing items 1-20 of 809

    • Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach 

      Issler, João Victor; Soares, Ana Flávia
      Credibility is elusive and no generally agreed upon measure of it exists. Despite that, Blinder (2000) generated a consensus in the literature by arguing that ”A central bank is credible if people believe it will do what ...
    • Incentive-driven Inattention 

      Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza; Giacomini, Raffaela; Issler, João Victor; Skreta, Vasiliki
      “Rational inattention” is becoming increasingly prominent in economic modelling, but there is little empirical evidence for its central premise–that the choice of attention results from a cost-benefit optimization. ...
    • Mixed causal-noncausal autoregressions with exogenous regressors 

      Hecq, Alain; Issler, João Victor; Telg, Sean
      The mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) model has been proposed to estimate time series processes involving explosive roots in the autoregressive part, as it allows for stationary forward and backward solutions. ...
    • Winners and losers from China’s ascension in international trade: a structural approach 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Pessoa, João Paulo
      This paper employs a unified theoretical framework to estimate the effect ofchanges within China on the Brazilian and World’s economy. Based on the Ricar-dian model of trade of Costinotet al.(2012), we perform counterfactuals ...
    • Mechanism design and the collective approach to household behavior 

      Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Lima, Lucas Alves Estevam de
      Do the Revelation and Taxation Principles hold for multi-person householDo the Revelation and Taxation Principles hold for multi-person households? We provide a positive answer to the former and a negative to the latter ...
    • How green is sugarcane ethanol? 

      Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco
      Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions in transportation. However, the agricultural expansion needed to produce biofuels may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle ...
    • Sustainability of Brazilian public debt: analysis of a possible structural break in the recent period 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      Campos and Cysne (2019a) use the multicointegration method to analyze the behavior of Brazilian public debt between 1997 and 2018. The authors observe, in this previous work, the necessity of evaluating the existence of a ...
    • Sustainability of the Brazilian public pebt an analysis using multicointegration 

      Cysne, Rubens Penha; Campos, Eduardo Lima
      According to Bohn (1995, 2008), the conventional sustainability tests, based on analyzing cointegration between government revenues and expenditures, are inconclusive for determining the sustainability of fiscal policy. ...
    • Stop suffering! Economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge 

      Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da; Marcantonio Junior, Angelo; Castro, Rudi Rocha de
      2018-12
      This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on religious conversion. We exploit the Brazilian trade liberalization to study the effects of local economic shocks on affiliation to Pentecostal Evangelicalism across ...
    • Social security reform, retirement and occupational behavior 

      Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Parente, Rafael Machado
      2018-11
      We study, in a life-cycle economy with three sectors - formal, informal and public – and endogenous retirement, the macroeconomic and occupational impacts of social security reforms in an economy with multiple pension ...
    • Early childhood education and economic growth 

      Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo; Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
      2018-10-18
      We study the effects of early childhood skill formation on productivity and schooling. We add early childhood human capital to a standard continuous time life cycle economy and assume complementarity between educational ...
    • Is the new keynesian is curve forward looking? 

      Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda
      2018-04
      This paper analyzes the solutions of the canonical and hybrid New Keynesian IS curve difference equation. It shows that the usual forward solution is ruled out because it is at odds with the underlying economic theory. ...
    • An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      2018-08
      Recent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily ...
    • Welfare cost of Inflation in Brazil: an approach with time-varying cointegration and Kalman filter 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      2018-08-01
      This paper compares the time-varying cointegration and the Kalman filter techniques to estimate the Brazilian money demand between 1996 and 2015. The estimation using Kalman filtering performs better and is subsequently ...
    • Fiscal vulnerability in Brazil: a simulated method of moments approach 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      2018-08-01
      This article estimates a structural macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and public debt risk premium. The aim is to assess the effect of different ...
    • A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      2018-05-01
      This paper evaluates the sustainability of public debt in Brazil using monthly data from January 2003 to June 2016, based on the estimation of fiscal reaction functions with time-varying coefficients. Three estimation ...
    • Correção monetária e eternização dos débitos: os casos do BNH, do BNDE e da CEF 

      Faro, Clovis de; Garcia, Fabio Lemos
      2018-03
      A Lei nº 4.380, de 21 de agosto de 1964, instituiu a correção monetária e, simultaneamente, o Banco Nacional de Habitação (BNH). Seu objetivo foi o de buscar preservar os valores reais dos contratos, em especial os relativos ...
    • A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil 

      Campos, Eduardo Lima; Cysne, Rubens Penha
      2017-12-01
      This paper evaluates the sustainability of public debt in Brazil using monthly data from the period between January 2003 and June 2016, based on estimation of fiscal reaction functions with time-varying coefficients. Three ...
    • Growth and shared prosperity in Brazil 

      Kakwani, Nanak; Neri, Marcelo Côrtes; Vaz, Fábio Monteiro
      2017-12
      This paper proposes extensions of the idea of shared prosperity and inclusive development. It explores dynamic growth linkages between mean income, inequality and social welfare, on the one hand, and different labor ...
    • Returns and intergenerational mobility of education during period of falling earnings inequality in Brazil 

      Neri, Marcelo Côrtes; Bonomo, Tiago
      2017-12-21
      Education related changes are often argued as the main reasons for changes in earnings distribuctions. However, omitted variable and measurement error biases possibly affect econometric estimates of these effects. Brazil ...