Do governments make dreams come true? An analysis of the minha casa minha vida housing program

Abstract

What are the attitudinal effects of being awarded homeownership by the government? In this paper we examine whether being selected as the beneficiary of a large public housing program affects beneficiaries-to-be political preferences as well as several other attitudes that have been known to vary with homeownership. We exploit the fact that Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida program selects beneficiaries for extremely subsidized mortgages through public lotteries to compare the preferences and attitudes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. We conducted a survey of both groups before any homes had actually been delivered, and as such we are able to isolate effects from the award from any effects of welfare changes experienced by the beneficiaries once they actually move into the new home. Contrary to our expectations, we find that selection into the program generated anti-incumbent (i.e. negative) political effects. Although surprising, the result is consistent across several outcome variables, and compatible with program implementation difficulties that we identified while conducting the study.