Sequential betting behavior: a test of asymmetric inconsistencies in group decision making

Abstract

Previous research has shown that individual decision makers tend to bet more than initially planned after experiencing a loss but not after a gain. This research tests whether groups in consensus decision-making contexts also demonstrate similar asymmetric inconsistencies. Two experiments, one at the individual level and one with three-person groups, were carried out based on a gambling-type betting task. Although individuals planned more conservatively than groups regarding their betting behavior after the first outcome, both individuals and groups misestimated their own betting behavior after losses but not after gains. Negative, but not positive, emotional reactions to previous decision outcomes were also misestimated, leading to incorrect predictions of future behavior. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.