Poverty, inequality and stability: the second real

Abstract

Since 1992, when the new National Household Survey (PNAD) was established, the figures for poverty indicate two significant changes in its status. Firstly, the proportion of the Brazilian population below the poverty line decreased from 35.3% to 28.8% between 1993-1995. In 2003, when poverty reached 28.2% of the population, a new period of descent began, leading to the figure of 22.7% in 2005, based on the new PNAD. This adds up to an overall decrease of 19.18% between 2003 and 2005-this magnitude being comparable to the 1993-1995 decrease of 18.47%. As it is known, changes in the poverty rate occurring in the 1993-1995 period are associated to the implementation of the Real Plan. What are then the characteristics that can be associated with the shift in poverty observed between 2003 and 2005? In particular, how did growth and inequality interact in these two periods? Which public policies-such as changes in the macroeconomic regime (Real Plan, inflation targets, among others) and changes in social policies (Bolsa-família, minimum wage adjustments, etc.)-explain these shifts in poverty? What are the specific channels that enable these policies? These are some of the questions addressed by the present research. The research provides a broad user-friendly database and analyses, such as series from the PNAD 2005, as well as PME 2006, on the evolution of poverty, mean income and income inequality among the different population groups, available by geographic breakdown (state, city size, slums, etc) and individual characteristics (education, gender, race, etc). Besides providing future scenarios on poverty, the research also includes data on monitoring the millenium goals and new labor mobility indicators, which allow us to follow the same individual throughout time. See the research in http://cps.fgv.br/en/research/poverty-inequality-and-stability-second-real