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    • Secular stagnation in the framework of rentier-financier capitalism and globalization 

      Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser
      Rentier-financier capitalism, neoliberalism and globalization have been in a crisis since 2008. It is characterized by low growth rates, quasi-stagnant wages and increase of inequality since rentiers replaced business ...
    • The economics and the political economy of new-developmentalism 

      Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser (2017-10)
      This paper resumes new developmentalism – a theoretical framework being defined since the early 2000s to understand middle-income countries. It contains a political economy, the beginning of a microeconomics and a ...
    • Impacto do decreto 8.058/13 sobre investigações antidumping no Brasil 

      Goldbaum, Sergio; Pedrozo Junior, Euclides (2017-09)
      O Decreto 8.058/13 alterou procedimentos relativos às investigações antidumping no Brasil. Um dos objetivos do novo decreto, conforme disposto no Plano Brasil Maior (2011), foi intensificar a defesa comercial, reduzindo-se ...
    • Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications 

      Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos; Machado, Caio Henrique; Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves (2017)
      We start by presenting the general model of dynamic coordination with timing frictions and some key theoretical results. We prove the model features a unique rationalizable equilibrium, present a method to solve the social ...
    • Descobrindo e avaliando modelos de predição para a inflação brasileira: uma análise a partir de uma gama ampla de indicadores 

      Silva, Anderson Moriya; Marçal, Emerson Fernandes (2017)
      Este trabalho visa avaliar o poder preditivo que séries macroeconômicas tem sobre o índice de preços ao consumidor amplo do brasileiro (IPCA) utilizando técnicas de séries de tempo. As previsões são realizadas para um ...
    • Competition in cascades 

      Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simões; Monte, Daniel (2017)
      Hydroelectric generation is the main source of energy production in many countries. When firms operate in the same river, or in cascades, the output of an upstream firm is the input of its downstream rival. We build a ...
    • The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”? 

      Marçal, Emerson Fernandes; Cunha, Ronan; Merlin, Giovanni Tondin; Simões, Oscar Rodrigues (2017)
      Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow ...
    • Smoothing quantile regressions 

      Fernandes, Marcelo; Guerre, Emmanuel; Horta, Eduardo (2017)
      We propose to smooth the entire objective function rather than only the check function in a linear quantile regression context. We derive a uniform Bahadur-Kiefer representation for the resulting convolution-type kernel ...
    • The government as a large shareholder: impact on corporate governance 

      Fernandes, Marcelo; Novaes, Walter (2017)
      What is the role that governments play as large shareholders of mixed-owned firms? By solving a bargaining model over investment decisions, we unveil two corporate governance effects of the government's activism as a large ...
    • Arco: an artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data 

      Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Masini, Ricardo Pereira; Medeiros, Marcelo C. (2017)
      We consider a new, flexible and easy-to-implement method to estimate causal effects of an intervention on a single treated unit and when a control group is not readily available. We propose a two-step methodology where in ...
    • Disagreement in inflation forecasts and inflation risk premia in Brazil 

      Doi, Jonas Takayuki; Fernandes, Marcelo; Nunes, Clemens V. de Azevedo (2017)
      The aim of this study is to investigate the link between the inflation risk premia implied by the term structures of nominal and real interest rates in Brazil and disagreements in inflation forecasts. We gauge the former ...
    • The perils of counterfactual analysis with integrated processes 

      Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Masini, Ricardo Pereira; Medeiros, Marcelo C. (2017)
      Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing econometric tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a "treated" unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no ...
    • How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resources curse 

      Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser (2017)
      This paper discusses two closely related concepts – the Dutch disease and the natural resource curse – and a third one, exchange rate populism, associated to the curse. The Dutch disease is a long-term overvaluation of the ...
    • Capital structure determinants of financially constrained and unconstrained firms 

      Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Bortoluzzo, Mauricio Mesquita (2017)
      This paper discusses the determinants of capital structure with a focus on both publicly-owned and privately-owned firms. We use annual financial statement data for over 1,000 publicly-owned and privately-owned Brazilian ...
    • Desenvolvimento econômico, sofisticação produtiva e valor-trabalho 

      Pereira, Luiz C. Bresser (2017)
      In this paper, I discuss the historical (not the normative) concept of economic development, distinguish it from human development, reassert its identification with industrialization or structural change or productive ...
    • The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) was right: scale-free complex networks and core-periphery patterns in world trade 

      Gala, Paulo; Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Freitas, Elton (2017)
      The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective ...
    • The resource curse reloaded: revisiting the Dutch disease with economic complexity analysis 

      Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de; Gala, Paulo (2017)
      This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural ...
    • Dotcom bubble and underpricing: conjectures and evidence 

      Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de; Pinheiro, Roberto Benjamin; Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira (2017)
      We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999–2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities ...
    • Mandatory IFRS adoption in Brazil and firm value 

      Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Gallucci Netto, Humberto; Silva, Vinicius Augusto Brunassi (2017)
      Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full ...
    • Disentangling the effect of private and public cash flows on firm value 

      Scherrer, Cristina Mabel; Fernandes, Marcelo (2017)
      This paper presents a simple model for dual-class stock shares, in which common shareholders receive both public and private cash flows (i.e. dividends and any private benefit of holding voting rights) and preferred ...